US midterm elections set to impact Thai economy - Bangkok Post

Consumer goods are seen at a distribution centre, operated by CP All Co in Bang Bua Thong district, Nonthaburi. Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun visits the centre to inspect supplies of consumer goods on Oct 2. 2026. (Photo: Chanat Katanyu) The US midterm elections are likely to influence the development of the Middle East war and impact Thai economic growth, says an academic.

Assoc Prof Thanavath Phonvichai, president of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, discussed the potential impact of the elections on Thailand’s economy.

 He said recent polls showed a decline in President Donald Trump’s approval ratings, particularly following the war on Iran. This trend suggests the Republican Party may lose control of the House of Representatives.

President Trump’s public approval rating was 32%, ‌up one percentage point from last week’s record low, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday.

Assoc Prof Thanavath said a Republican loss of its House majority could make it harder to escalate military action against Iran and would increase the possibility of negotiations.

The details of any negotiations or military movements must be monitored, he noted.

 If tensions over the Strait of Hormuz subside, crude oil prices could trade around US$80 per barrel, elevating the Thai economic forecast for 2026 and 2027.

If negotiations fail and the strait remains partially closed, with ongoing military strikes, crude oil prices could remain around $100 per barrel, said Assoc Prof Thanavath, resulting in Thai GDP growth of 2.1% this year.

“Crude oil at around $100 per barrel would affect travel, and Thailand’s tourism sector may face challenges,” he said.

 Crude oil exceeding $100 per barrel would reduce global spending power, negatively affecting Thai exports to Southeast Asia, the US and China, causing Thai GDP growth to dip below 2.1% this year, noted Assoc Prof Thanavath.

However, if the Republican Party retains its majority in both houses, Trump would have a clearer mandate and tensions in the Middle East could escalate, he said, keeping crude oil prices above $120 per barrel on average and denting the global economy, including Thailand.

The election results may have less impact on tariff issues than the Middle East conflict, as the trade war appears secondary and several countries have begun trade negotiations with the US, noted Assoc Prof Thanavath. Thai exporters must monitor trade news and adapt their plans accordingly, he said.