Trump’s last stand? A Canadian’s guide to the U.S. midterm elections - National Post

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Copy URL Facebook Linked In X (Twitter) Loading account options Sign In Manage Account Close account menu Sign Out US President Donald Trump speaks at a midterm campaign rally in Rock Hill, South Carolina on October 29, 2026. (KENT NISHIMURA / AFP via Getty Images) By Tracy Moran October 31, 2026 at 5:07 a.m. Last Updated: October 31, 2026 at 6:54 a.m. WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. President Donald Trump has made a dizzying array of campaign stops this past week in the run-up to Tuesday’s midterm elections, stumping in Michigan last Sunday before hitting Mississippi, Texas, Ohio, South Carolina, and Florida, with planned stops this weekend in Kansas and Iowa.

While nine rallies in eight days across eight states may seem like normal, last-minute voter outreach, the president’s largely red-state itinerary suggests he’s playing defence. His recent messaging to the Republican base has also signalled that he’s worried about GOP losses.

On Sunday, in Port Huron, Michigan, Trump told a rally that if the Democrats win, they will “take everything away,” undoing his work of the past two years.

“So I’m asking you to pretend that I’m on the ballot,” he said.

The president’s approval rating is at 32 per cent, according to the latest Ipsos poll, just one point higher than last week’s record low, so Trump may not be the best ambassador for Republican candidates.

National polls have long shown Democrats winning a majority in the House of Representatives, and more recent surveys suggest they may also flip the Senate.

The same Ipsos poll showed registered voters favouring Democrats over Republicans, 47 to 36 per cent, while 11 per cent remained undecided. The latest YouGov poll also has the Dems up by nine percentage points, and all polls from this month show the Democrats ahead by margins ranging from four to 12 points.

The Cook Political Report favours Democrats to win the House, with between 227 and 237 seats, leaving Republicans with 198 to 208 seats. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election forecasting site, has 225 seats leaning Democratic, 193 leaning Republican, and both outlets list 17 races as toss-ups.

“Democrats are very favoured to win the House, and I think at the very least they’ll get outside of the really tiny majorities we’ve seen in the last three Congresses, meaning into the high 220s or 230s,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Eurasia Group senior analyst Graeme Thompson said his political consultancy has 90 per cent odds for Democrats winning the House.

“The expectation is that the most likely scenario is that they would have a majority of roughly 20 to 30 seats,” he said.

The battle for the Senate remains uncertain. Cook lists seven races as toss-ups, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball has 49 seats leaning Democratic and 46 leaning Republican, with five toss-ups.

“I do think the Democrats probably have a little bit of an edge,” said Kondik. “But I could see it going either way, really,” he added, noting that “Democrats are reliant on winning at least a couple of seats in states that Trump won by double digits.”

“While it seems like they’ve made a lot of progress toward doing that, we shouldn’t be shocked if, ultimately, they come up a little short in those states.”

Eurasia Group similarly has “60 per cent odds on the Democrats winning the Senate,” said Thompson, noting that it’s “quite close to a toss-up.”

But he also noted that Trump’s low approval rating and the fact that voters are fixated on affordability concerns appear to be pulling the Democrats ahead, even in those otherwise red areas.

“Republicans and the administration poll relatively poorly on key issues, most notably inflation, affordability, and cost of living,” Thompson said. “When you look at the polls in specific races, Democrats have, in some cases, relatively small but consistent leads over Republican rivals, even in states that you might consider part of a ‘red wall’.”

But that national advantage is not playing out evenly across the electoral map. Some traditionally Democratic states remain unexpectedly competitive, pollsters say.

“The idea of there being a blue wave doesn’t mean it necessarily will be evenly distributed across the country,” said Sean McKinley, project director of the UNH Survey Center, which conducts polling in New England.

“A through line we’ve been seeing really for the last few months is that, what many people are describing as kind of a blue wave they’re anticipating in some purple states and some red states, we’re not seeing that as much in our polling here in New England. That seems to be the case in some other blue states as well.”

McKinley pointed to Michigan and Maine’s Senate races as being among those many would expect the Democrats to handily win.

“But what we’re seeing … and what a lot of their polling has shown in Michigan and also in Maine is actually pretty close races,” he said. “Also, here in New Hampshire, in our own state, which tends to be a little bit more on the bluish side of purple, we’re seeing relatively close races for Senate, which is somewhat surprising.”

So the blue wave, McKinley says, seems to be “much more prominent in red and purple states” than in places like Maine, New Hampshire, and Michigan, a trend he chalks up to voters generally being fed up with the status quo and “more hostile towards incumbents” on both sides of the aisle.

For the House, there are several races to watch on election day for signs of whether the polling predictions were accurate, says Kondik.

He’s keeping an eye on Maine’s 2nd District and sees it as one of the Republicans’ best opportunities to pick up a seat. Republican Paul LePage is competing there against Democrat Matthew Dunlap and Independent Gregory Ward for outgoing Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s seat. While polls have Dunlap a few points ahead, Sabato’s rates it as a Republican leaning race.

“If Paul LePage does not flip Maine 2 — that’s a seat that butts up right against Canada — that would be a pretty bad sign for Republicans, because that might be one of their best pickup opportunities,” Kondik said.

He is also tracking Virginia’s 5th District closely, where incumbent Republican John McGuire is up against former Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello, noting that it’s a more ambitious Democratic pickup.

“John McGuire losing would signal a particularly bad Republican night,” said Kondik.

Virginia’s 2nd District, where former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria is challenging Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans, is among the Dems’ better pickup opportunities, and Sabato’s rates it as “leans Democratic.”

“Virginia 2 is probably a seat you’d expect Democrats to win if they win the House,” said Kondik.

And if the Democrats manage to flip Virginia’s 1st District, a seat Republican incumbent Rob Wittman has held since 2007, Kondik believes that would signal a big win for the left. If Democrat Shannon Taylor wins that seat, he said, “that’s probably indicative of Democrats sitting again outside that small majority that we’ve seen the last three cycles.”

In Pennsylvania’s 1st, 7th, 8th, and 10th Districts, all of which are held by Republicans today, any Democratic win would be a pickup.

“Democrats probably should win at least two of those,” Kondik said. “If they don’t — if they only win one or they don’t win any, that’s probably indicative of Republicans doing significantly better than most expect.”

While those House races will help reveal the size of the electoral swing, the Senate contests will determine whether Democrats control one chamber or both. Kondik sees Maine and Texas as pivotal.

“I think Democrats need at least one of those two to win the Senate … if they lose both, I don’t necessarily see how they make it up otherwise,” he said.

Maine is the only Kamala Harris-won state that has a Republican senator, Sen. Susan Collins, and Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office in more than 30 years, but both reflect the contrast in this year’s Republican candidates.

“Susan Collins is a great Republican candidate and a great performer; Ken Paxton is a horrible Republican candidate and is probably going to be a poor performer in this election relative to how the rest of the Republican ticket does,” said Kondik.

In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson now has a narrow edge over Collins, with a new CNN/SSRS poll giving him 49 per cent to Collins’ 45 per cent, with a ±4.5-percentage-point margin of error. But the race remains too close to call — Sabato’s and Cook still list it as a toss-up.

Both outlets also list the Texas Senate race as a toss-up. Democrat James Talarico is leading in most polls by a range of two to eight percentage points, but Fox News still has him neck-and-neck with Republican Ken Paxton. A new Texas Southern University poll released on Thursday has Talarico at 49 per cent to Paxton’s 47 per cent, but the reported margin of error is ±2.19 percentage points, and pundits remain cautious, as 88 per cent of Republicans say they plan to vote for Paxton.

In Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is competing against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers for outgoing Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ seat, the most recent polls have El-Sayed ahead by six or seven points. Earlier this month, however, the margins were tight. Despite those recent leads, Cook still lists the race as a toss-up, while Sabato’s now rates it Leans Democratic.

Kondik said he’ll be surprised if El-Sayed loses.

“I don’t think he’s going to do particularly well compared to the governor’s race or what the environment would suggest, but, obviously, if Michigan doesn’t stay with the Dems, that makes the Democrats’ job a lot harder on the rest of the map,” he said.

Another key Senate race to watch is in Alaska, where Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan faces Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola as well as the undeclared Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and Republican Gerald L. Heikes (the 49th state uses a top-four primary system).

People linked to Democrats allegedly recruited the second Daniel Sullivan to run.

Trump directed the Justice Department to launch a preemptive lawsuit seeking to block certification under certain circumstances, arguing that the similar names could confuse voters.

Democrats have several routes to a Senate majority. If they hold their existing seats, including Michigan, and flip North Carolina, victories in Ohio, Maine, and Alaska would grant them control — even if they don’t win in traditionally red states like Texas, Iowa, or Kansas, which are also considered highly competitive.

Even if Democrats secure both chambers in January, their ability to govern will depend on the size of their majorities — and the limits of their power with Trump still in the White House.

“I think that there are going to be some problem children for the speaker,” Kondik warned. “If Hakeem Jeffries is the speaker, there are going to be some left-wing members who may not go with him on everything.”

Democratic members from Trump districts, he said, will want to distance themselves from leadership to try to retain their seats in 2028, and this is where the size of the House majority will matter. The bigger it is, the more it lets party leaders give politically vulnerable Dems permission to vote against the party on some issues without undermining the outcome.

“The more seats you have, the more hall passes you could give out on certain votes,” Kondik said. “That’s where (the bigger majority) is valuable.”

Whatever majority Democrats secure in the House, a narrow Senate majority would leave them facing another obstacle: the filibuster, which allows senators to delay or block most legislation. Ending debate and advancing a contested bill to a final vote generally requires 60 votes, rather than a simple majority. So even if Democrats pass a bill in the House and hold 51 Senate seats, they would need at least nine Republicans to help move it forward in the Senate.

There is another big hurdle: legislation that clears both chambers could still face Trump’s veto. Overriding it would require two-thirds support in both the House and Senate — 67 senators and 290 representatives if all members vote. Neither party has held a two-thirds majority in both chambers since 1967.

That means much of the House’s agenda will focus on “messaging legislation,” said Kondik, with Democrats passing bills that signal to their supporters where they stand and drawing a contrast between them and Republicans ahead of 2028.

Democrats, therefore, will likely win a platform to promote their desired policies in the House, but they will not be able to turn those ideas into law.

Ottawa would likely welcome a Democratic victory, Thompson said, even if it brought little immediate change in the bilateral relationship.

“It’s hard to believe that the Canadian officials and certainly Canadian public opinion would not view a rebuke of the president and his agenda positively,” he said.

Those legislative hurdles would also limit Democrats’ ability to deliver tariff relief for Canada.

Inu Manak, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said control of both chambers could accelerate efforts to repeal some tariffs, particularly those imposed under Section 338, where she sees potential Republican support. But she cautioned that sectoral tariffs would be harder to unwind.

Alfredo Carrillo Obregon, a trade policy analyst at the Cato Institute, says he would expect Democrats to propose tariff rollbacks but doubts the proposals could draw enough Republican support to overcome Trump’s opposition.

“It’s difficult to see veto-proof majorities for … just a lot of comprehensive tariff action,” he said.

While major Republican losses could increase political pressure for a trade deal with Canada, Obregon expects that Trump’s continued hold over the GOP will mute the pushback.

“These folks have to compete in primaries,” he said, noting how Trump will continue to influence endorsements.

Thompson similarly expects little to change.

“I wouldn’t expect a structurally very different relationship with the Trump administration after the midterms,” he said.

“I don’t think that from an institutional point of view that the Democratic majority can do all that much to constrain the president. It’s more about how things are polling and how it is viewed from a foreign policy and a legacy point of view.”

But will Trump himself be chastened in his approach toward Canada by a defeat or by his final two years in office?

Andrew Hale, a fellow at Washington’s Advancing American Freedom, fears that the president could take more extreme measures as a lame duck.

“Will he become more reckless and unpredictable by maybe trying to deflect attention onto a trade war with Canada? … Will he have anything to lose at that point?” Hale pondered.

McKinley cautioned that any lessons Republicans draw from defeat would depend on whether they accept the results as legitimate.

“In that case, at least publicly, I think it is very unlikely that they would be at all chastened by the result,” he said.

Thompson was less willing to predict which direction Trump might take.

“It’s not self-evident to me that the president will act in one way or another … as a result of the status of becoming a lame duck,” he said.

If Republicans lose both chambers, Thompson expects Trump to focus more on his legacy, foreign policy, and his eventual successor than on trade with Canada.

“Whether that’s constructive for Canada or not, I think will depend on the issue and the circumstances.”

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