Three Days Before Runoff, Flávio and Lula Tied at 50% of Valid Votes, Datafolha Says - 23/10/2026 - Brazil - Folha de S.Paulo

A Datafolha poll shows that, three days before the runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula (PT) are tied in the presidential race with 50% of valid votes each. The margin of error is two percentage points either way.

The valid-vote calculation excludes blank and null votes, as Brazil’s electoral court does when declaring the final result, as well as undecided voters. In last week’s poll, the result was 51% for the senator and 49% for the president.

Among all votes, Jair Bolsonaro’s son has 47%, while the Workers’ Party candidate has 46%, a statistical tie. Blank and null votes account for 5%, and undecided voters for 2%. A week ago, Flávio had 47% and Lula 45%, while 6% said they intended to cast a blank or null vote.

Rejection rates remain high: 46% would not vote for the senator and 45% would not vote for the president.

When asked about the current Lula administration, 39% of voters rate it as bad or very bad, 36% as very good or good, and 24% as average.