The world has passed peak Trump

At the UN General Assembly, President Trump delivered a victory speech. A decade after telling his supporters on the campaign trail that he’d stack so many victories “you may even get tired of winning,” he offered a list of successes, including the settlement of eight wars, action against “the bully of the Middle East” in Iran, a deal with Denmark on Greenland and the arrest of “outlaw dictator” Nicolás Maduro. To Trump’s credit, some of these wins are significant – a fragile but important peace in Gaza and a Venezuela that is slowly moving towards elections for the first time in more than 10 years.  

But his victory speech also revealed something else: the growing limits of his power as he enters a lame duck stage of his presidency, experiences and interacts with leaders whose tenures will extend far beyond his own. Previously the most powerful, unpredictable force on the international stage, Trump has now passed the peak of his ability to disrupt the international order.  

The evidence of Trump’s fading influence can be found across his top priorities: tariffs, the Iran War and immigration enforcement.  

Earlier this year, the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s use of emergency powers to institute tariffs in a 6-3 ruling. Even before that decision, Trump was confronted with the limits of his power in his brief trade war with China, when he tried to force China into concessions with a 145 percent tariff rate, before having to back down to avoid severe economic damage to the US economy as China responded with a halt on critical mineral exports. Now, Trump has not only moderated his policies on China, but he’s almost entirely reversed his position, as shown in President Xi’s recent visit to Washington, in which Trump greeted Xi at the airport (the first time an American leader has offered such a greeting for a state visit since 1962) and offered to sell China weapons (in violation of US law). 

When Trump attempted to ratchet up trade pressure on Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney responded with retaliatory tariffs and a new middle power strategy. Trump correctly read that he possessed economic leverage over Canada (with over 70 percent of Canadian exports going to the US), but he underestimated the power imbalance between himself, as an unpopular leader with only two years left in his term, and Carney, who over 60 percent of Canadians favor – a wave of support that will likely keep him in office for years to come. Now, Canada is thinking even bigger – forging a closer connection with the European Union and attempting to bring other countries, such as Australia and the UK, along with it. 

Trump has found similar limits in the Iran War. After attempting to engineer a rapid regime change, without the boots on the ground required to do so, the American administration was surprised by the Iranian seizure of the Strait of Hormuz and has found itself unable to reach a durable agreement to reopen the strait. Trump’s task in resolving this war is made more difficult by the fact that the Iranians no longer trust American agreements – given Trump’s decision to rip up President Obama’s original nuclear deal in his first term, then attack Iran while actively negotiating for a new one in his second term. As a result, Iran’s strategy is to wait Trump out, hoping that the economic pressure of the closure of the Strait and his fading political capital will eventually force him to offer greater concessions. While Trump has attempted to message that he will not back down – by threatening to “annihilate” the country, emphasizing that a loss in the midterms will not alter his strategy and dispatching new forces to the Middle East – Iran has not been convinced. 

Domestically, Trump’s flagship immigration enforcement policies are facing pushback as well. Earlier this year, Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota sparked such a large scale of violence and unrest that border czar Tom Homan had to end the initiative. Now, House and Senate Republicans, many of whom are running for reelection this November and facing long odds as a result of Trump’s sagging approval ratings, are breaking from him. Even longtime Trump ally Sen. Jim Justice, considering a run for governor of West Virginia, is now arguing that the administration’s immigration polices are “doing something wrong.” 

Trump of course remains a consequential figure on the global stage – in charge of the world’s most powerful military and dynamic economy in a time of few global guardrails. But the gulf between his ambitions and capabilities is widening. As a result, the level of global risk associated with Trump is declining in all areas except for one: artificial intelligence. 

AI is the unique exception in which Trump’s capacity to disrupt the global order is growing. His decision to rule out regulation on AI in order to “win” the AI race against China, despite the increasingly frequent safety incidents documented by companies like OpenAI and Anthropic – from attempts to develop bioweapons using AI to rogue government hacking sprees – creates a near certainty that an AI-fueled crisis will eventually emerge. Such a crisis, like Trump’s actions on trade, Iran and immigration enforcement, will spiral in ways that are currently unforeseeable and further demonstrate the limits of his power in the final years of his presidency. 

abtestabtest Conflicted By FIRST PERSON | By Alex Magno | 6 hours ago Members of the Senate sit as judges in the impeachment case involving the Vice President. Opinion Hope in a sea of hopelessness By EDUKAMPYON | By Popoy De Vera | 6 hours ago Amid rampant corruption, a telenovela impeachment trial, the peso’s spiraling devaluation, high prices of gas and food and Filipinos’ continued loss of hope for change, there is reason for hope in South... Opinion MADman on a mission By FOOD FOR THOUGHT | By Chit U. Juan | 6 hours ago Raf Dionisio wanted to be a rich man, because he had set his sights on working for a multinational, being a corporate executive, using his penchant for Math and making a lot of money. Opinion Cyber-libel rice By POINT OF VIEW | By Antonio Montemayor | 6 hours ago "Sa langit, madaming bigas.” Opinion Ultimatum By SKETCHES | By Ana Marie Pamintuan | 5 days ago If the government knows where Sen. Ronald dela Rosa is and is negotiating with the “powerful” armed group protecting him, why dangle a P50-million reward for information leading to his capture? Opinion Latest More in Opinion Project Airbag Clearing Imeldific Fight not fright The pistis shift abtest Palace, House collude in P1-trillion pork By GOTCHA | By Jarius Bondoc | 1 day ago The political elite is provoking people to revolt. Opinion From practical to smart solutions By COMMONSENSE | By Marichu Villanueva | 1 day ago Every activity, no matter how trivial it may seem, matters a lot to help stave off looming water crisis. Opinion Collapse By FIRST PERSON | By Alex Magno | 2 days ago Suddenly, “depreciation” seems too kind a word. The peso is simply collapsing. Opinion When BBM says don’t panic... By EYES WIDE OPEN | By Iris Gonzales | 2 days ago The peso’s slide is heart-attack level. But President Marcos said we should not be alarmed. Opinion All Saints’ & All Souls’ Days By BREAKTHROUGH | By Elfren S. Cruz | 2 days ago According to the book “Catechism for Filipino Catholics,” Filipinos have traditionally manifested their deep faith in an afterlife with prayers for our departed loved ones and our devotion to the sa... Opinion Recommended Mga numero ni Sara October 30, 2026 - 12:00am Labing lisod nga tubagon ni Bise Presidente Sara Duterte sa iyang turno sa pagpresentar og mga ebidensiya ug mga testigo sa pagpadayon sa impeachment trial karong Nobyembre 9 mao ang dakong kalainan sa mga numero...r OpinionSARA DUTERTE The Supreme Court's power of judicial review October 28, 2026 - 12:00am Whenever the highest court of the land calls out the executive or the legislative departments for grave abuses of discretion or going overboard in the scope of their respective authority, the Supreme Court doesn’t...r OpinionGRAVE Bawos sa mga Duterte October 28, 2026 - 12:00am Managsama silang Bise Presidente Sara Duterte ug Philip Lustre Jr. nga nalutsan og arrest warrant sa adlawng Biyernes. Si Sara gikiha og grave threats sa Department of Justice (DOJ). Samtang si Lustre gikiha og cyber...r OpinionSARA Sara walay ebidensiya October 27, 2026 - 12:00am Duha ka semana human gilibkas sa Senate impeachment court ang pagdili batok ni Bise Presidente Sara Duterte pagtuki sa merito sa articles of impeachment nga gibakwi sa prosekusyon, wala pa gihapon siyay napakita...r OpinionSARA DUTERTE next Recommended Mga numero ni Sara Labing lisod nga tubagon ni Bise Presidente Sara Duterte sa iyang turno sa pagpresentar og mga ebidensiya ug mga testigo sa pagpadayon sa impeachment trial karong Nobyembre 9 mao ang dakong kalainan sa mga numero sa iyang Statements of Assets, Liabilities and Net worth ug bank accounts. 1 day ago SARA DUTERTE The Supreme Court's power of judicial review Whenever the highest court of the land calls out the executive or the legislative departments for grave abuses of discretion or going overboard in the scope of their respective authority, the Supreme Court doesn’t essentially assert superiority over the president or the Lower House and the Senate. It merely protects and upholds the Constitution, which we all know as the highest law of the land. 3 days ago GRAVE Bawos sa mga Duterte Managsama silang Bise Presidente Sara Duterte ug Philip Lustre Jr. nga nalutsan og arrest warrant sa adlawng Biyernes. Si Sara gikiha og grave threats sa Department of Justice (DOJ). Samtang si Lustre gikiha og cyber libel sa bana ni VP Sara nga si Atty. Mans Carpio. 3 days ago SARA Sara walay ebidensiya Duha ka semana human gilibkas sa Senate impeachment court ang pagdili batok ni Bise Presidente Sara Duterte pagtuki sa merito sa articles of impeachment nga gibakwi sa prosekusyon, wala pa gihapon siyay napakita nga bisan unsang ebidensiya pagpanghimakak nga: 4 days ago SARA DUTERTE OK Are you sure you want to log out? Yes No X Login Philstar.com is one of the most vibrant, opinionated, discerning communities of readers on cyberspace. With your meaningful insights, help shape the stories that can shape the country. Sign up now!