Ted Morton: What happens next in Alberta depends on Ottawa - National Post
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith answers questions about the results of the Alberta referendum during a press conference in Calgary on Oct. 21, 2026. Photo by Gavin Young / PostmediaArticle contentThe results for the Alberta referendum send a mixed message.
The 25 per cent vote for Option B — for a followup referendum to secede — was lower than what I had hoped for, but about what I expected. As I’ve stated repeatedly, I do not support Alberta separation, but I also do not support the status quo. My concern was — and is — that too low a vote for Option B sends a message to the rest of Canada that they don’t have to worry about Alberta; that the separatists are a noisy but politically irrelevant minority, and so the Carney Liberals can go back to business as usual.
This would be a big mistake. The 25 per cent vote for separation is double what it would have been a decade ago. And if the next decade is like the past decade, this number will double again. Which means 50 per cent, and a real problem, both for Canada and for Alberta.
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My main takeaway from the referendum is that the same voters who voted 75 per cent to remain in Canada also voted around 50 per cent for the policy and constitutional reforms in questions 1 through 9. That is, they oppose separation, but they also do not think that Alberta has been treated fairly.
Does that mean that the separation debate in Alberta is over? No. Alberta’s constitutional vulnerability to predatory and damaging federal policies remains. But I predict the next chapter will depend more on what happens in Ottawa than what happens in Edmonton.
Prime Minister Mark Carney must turn his talk into actions; he must follow through on his “energy super-power” rhetoric and deliver on the now three new proposed pipelines to the West Coast. If Carney does this, separatist sentiment will go into hibernation.
Test No. 1 for Carney will be to meet his September 2027 deadline for final approval of the Pacific Link pipeline as a project of national interest. And not coincidentally, meeting this deadline would also almost guarantee that Albertans would give Premier Danielle Smith and the UCP a second majority government in the October election.
But what if Carney does not deliver? What if the U.S.-Iranian conflict ends; the Strait of Hormuz reopens; and the global price of oil goes back to $50 or $60 US/barrel? Will climate change replace energy security as Carney’s highest priority? Will reducing Canada’s CO2 emissions replace expanding Canada’s oil and gas exports to the rest of the world? Perhaps more worrisome, what happens after Carney? The Liberal party will be here long after Carney goes out the door. If all of this goes in the wrong direction, the separation bear will come out of hibernation and roar again.
