Poll: ANC support plummets as DA closes gap - IOL
Ipsos finds no political party commands majority support ahead of South Africa's November 4 local government elections.
South Africa is moving deeper into an era of coalition politics, with no single political party commanding majority support as voters, increasingly disillusioned over service delivery, head to the polls for the November 4 local government elections.
A new survey by Ipsos found that the African National Congress (ANC) is still South Africa's largest political party, but its support has fallen to an all-time low, while the Democratic Alliance (DA) has narrowed the gap.
These findings point towards coalition governments becoming an increasingly prominent feature of local government across the country.
The latest Khayabus Pulse of the People study found that the ANC attracted 30% support among registered voters who selected a party on a simulated ballot paper, significantly lower than the 47.5% support that the party enjoyed in the 2021 local government elections.
The DA emerged as South Africa's second-biggest party, at 28%, up from 19.9% in 2021, while the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party received 12% and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) garnered 10%.
ActionSA and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) each attracted 4%, while the Patriotic Alliance (PA) received 2%. The remaining parties collectively accounted for 7%.
Nationally, the ANC's support has dwindled to around 30%, according to the survey.
Ipsos said the results demonstrated how fragmented the political landscape had become, with no single party commanding majority support nationally.
Political analyst Mari Harris said the survey suggested that coalition politics would remain a defining feature of South Africa's political landscape over the next two and a half years leading up to the next national election.
"Looking at the pre-election surveys conducted, we will probably have new coalition governments in most of the metropolitan municipalities after the elections, with numerous local and district councils also expected to be governed through coalition arrangements," Harris said.
The survey suggests that most metropolitan municipalities could require coalition arrangements.
In Johannesburg, the DA recorded 30% support against the ANC's 27%, while the MK Party received 12% and ActionSA 11%.Β In Tshwane, the DA was three percentage points ahead of the ANC. In Ekurhuleni, the ANC is ahead of the DA, although the gap between them is relatively narrow .Β
The DA continued to attract just over half of voter support in Cape Town (51%), followed by the ANC (24%) and EFF (10%).
The MK Party remains the largest party in eThekwini by a considerable margin (47%), despite an eight-percentage-point decline in its support. It is trailed by the DA (21%) and ANC (10%).
In Nelson Mandela Bay, the ANC and DA are also running very close, with Ipsos describing the contest as highly competitive.Β In Buffalo City, the ANC appears likely to remain the largest party, although its support may not be sufficient to secure an outright majority. The EFF has also registered a notable presence in the metro.
In Mangaung, the ANC remains ahead, followed relatively closely by the DA and then the EFF.
Ipsos cautioned that the findings should not be interpreted as predictions of the final election results, as voter turnout and changes in preferences could influence the outcome.
The Ipsos survey also revealed a growing disillusionment among voters, with 53% of eligible voters stating that they could not identify a political party that represented their views, up from the 47% recorded in the first survey wave.
Harris said voter apathy was often blamed for declining electoral participation, but frustration over poor service delivery and political promises that were not followed by action were also important factors.
The latest survey also showed that 68% of registered voters agreed with the statement that politicians could not be trusted, while only 15% disagreed.
Despite the widespread dissatisfaction with political parties, 62% of respondents said they were looking forward to voting in the 2026 local government elections.
However, Ipsos highlighted concerns about voter registration and turnout. Of the country's 44.9 million voting-age adults, only 29.2 million are registered with the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC).Β This means that around 35% of eligible voters are not registered to vote.
Ipsos estimated that if turnout matches the 2021 local government elections, approximately 12.8 million people will cast their ballots. If participation is similar to the 2024 national and provincial elections, the figure could reach 16.3 million.
Harris said two-thirds of South Africans (65%) believed political parties should work together at municipal level.
She warned that coalition negotiations following the elections could involve considerable uncertainty, particularly in councils where no party secures an outright majority.
The Ipsos Khayabus Pulse of the People study interviewed 3,600 randomly selected South Africans in their homes and home languages between September 12 and October 13, 2026.
A sample of 2,533 registered voters was used for the voting-related findings. Respondents were presented with an electronic ballot paper and asked to mark their preferred political party.
