Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG (von NuWays AG): BUY - T-Online

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with the H1 results. Reported figures are diluted by the two hotels still in

their start-up phase. Underneath, the existing portfolio continues to price

up, and Conrad Hamburg showed its first convincing month.

Q3 hotel sales rose 25% yoy to EUR 56.5m (eNuW: EUR 57.8m), bringing 9M hotel

sales to EUR 155m, also up 25%. Growth was again mainly driven by portfolio

the prior-year quarter, together should have added some EUR 10m (eNuW). This

implied, the existing portfolio grew c. 3% l-f-l. Within the mix, F&B again

outpaced rooms, rising 31% to EUR 11.6m against 24% growth in rooms revenue to

RevPAR roughly flat at EUR 180. Yet, this understates how well the existing

hotels are doing. Excluding Conrad and the Hyatt Regency Vienna, ADR rose c.

5% to EUR 239 at a stable occupancy of 81%. That is a solid result in a

quarter in which the usual summer demand from the Gulf states stayed soft.

Rate momentum was strongest in August, with ADR up c. 8% yoy but September

Conrad turns the corner. Conrad Hamburg's ramp-up has been the main burden

on this year's earnings, and Q3 brought the first real progress. According

out, pushing operating margin accordingly. This is the first clear evidence

that the hotel is moving towards a sustainable level of occupancy.

Guidance confirmed, Q4 carries the year. Management confirmed FY26 group

sales of EUR 220-225m and EBITDA of c. EUR 8m. On the top-line, this requires Q4

revenues of c. EUR 64-69m, up 21-30% yoy. Given 25% growth in Q3 and the

the range the more likely outcome. The earnings side is more demanding. With

only EUR 0.2m EBITDA generated in H1, the second half has to deliver c. EUR

7.8m. Yet, H2 is traditionally MHP's stronger half due to the weak Q1, but

also driven by trade fairs and Christmas market demand. The guidance remains

reference, H2'25 delivered EUR 11.7m).

Investment case intact. MHP remains the price leader among German hotel

its average rate of c. EUR 242 as the highest in the market. Its leasehold and

estate. Sheraton Vienna (2027), the Autograph Collection hotel in Stuttgart

set to expand the platform. Once the Conrad ramp-up is completed and the new

hotels mature, earnings should catch up with the rapidly growing top line.

Current valuation does not reflect that at all. BUY, PT EUR 3.50.

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