Original-Research: 123fahrschule SE (von NuWays AG): BUY - T-Online

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9M: Profitability turns visible; chg.

seen in H1. Despite the ongoing demand vacuum ahead of the driving school

Q3 marks a clear earnings step-up. Reported group EBITDA improved to EUR 0.49m

in Q3 (Q3'25: EUR -0.19m), lifting 9M EBITDA by 68% yoy to EUR 1.33m (9M'25: EUR

0.79m). The 9M EBITDA margin thus expanded to 6.8%, up 2.7pp yoy. Sales grew

4.7% yoy to EUR 6.7m in Q3, and 2.1% to EUR 19.7m for 9M. Growth in the core

business was partly offset by the investment restraint at Foerst. In a

Cost measures start to pay off. The earnings swing is largely driven by the

efficiency measures taken over the past months. Headcount was reduced from

e-learning with the upcoming reform. With personnel costs still flat yoy in

H1, the savings only started to show from Q3 onwards. Accordingly, segment

EBITDA of the core driving school business rose 120% yoy to EUR 1.04m in 9M

(9M'25: EUR 0.47m). The group-wide rollout of the digital planning tool

FahrerWerk turns the corner. The instructor training subsidiary still

weighed on group earnings as planned, with 9M EBITDA of c. EUR -0.27m.

However, the demand pick-up announced in July is now materialising. In

September, EBITDA was c. 79% above the prior-year month, while total costs

were cut by 12%. Registrations for Q4 course starts are up 119% vs Q1, and

first time. Management therefore expects a break-even to positive EBITDA in

Q4 and sees a clearly positive EBITDA in FY27.

Foerst: demand is there, orders await the reform. The simulator subsidiary

grew 9M sales by 6.5% and remained slightly EBITDA-positive. Demand picked

investments until the reform is finally passed. That said, current inquiries

makes Foerst a clear catch-up candidate for FY27e.

FY26 guidance confirmed. Management reiterated its FY26 EBITDA guidance of EUR

1.5-2.5m and expects a positive Q4 EBITDA at all three entities. Action. We

still sligthly lower our FY estimate given our higher 9m forecast. At the

realistic given the deferred simulator orders.

top line. We look forward to the FY figures, including cash flow, for

further confirmation. Reiterate BUY, PT EUR 6.10 based on DCF.

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