Opinion | Democrats rode a blue wave, but Republicans may still be winning the culture war - Toronto Star

Wedge issues exist to win elections and the fact that anti-trans fearmongering continues to hold a strong grip on the electorate, despite a blue wave, is a troubling wrinkle to any optimistic 2028 predictions.

Voters cast their ballots at the Cathedral of St. John the Divine in New York on Election Day, Tuesday. “In addition to electoral races, voters in several states also cast ballots on a range of initiatives, including redistricting, taxes, voter ID laws, and in the case of Idaho, the official state gun (not joking),” writes Shira Lurie. “But many focused on the issue du jour: trans rights. And the results are not worth celebrating.”

Shira Lurie is an associate professor of U.S. history at Saint Mary’s University and author of "The American Liberty Pole: Popular Politics and the Struggle for American Democracy in the Early Republic."

The Democrats’ “Blue Tsunami” on Tuesday washed in a wave of promising firsts: the first Muslim senator, the first openly gay senator, the first Black female governor, the first Indigenous female governor and six transgender and non-binary people who will be the first in their state legislatures.

In addition, the improbable victories of progressive candidates like Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan) and Troy Jackson (Maine), who backed trans rights, abortion access and ending aid to Israel, offered a strong rebuke not only to Trumpism, but also to the conservatism that has leeched across the political spectrum to infect many Democrats.

As Congress, governorships and state houses turned blue, many in decades-long Republican strongholds, Wednesday morning felt like a new dawn. Perhaps the U.S. was finally awaking from its multi-year MAGA nightmare.

But special ballot measures tell an unfortunately more sobering story.

In addition to electoral races, voters in several states also cast ballots on a range of initiatives, including redistricting, taxes, voter ID laws, and in the case of Idaho, the official state gun (not joking).

But many focused on the issue du jour: trans rights. And the results are not worth celebrating.

Arizona, which re-elected a Democratic governor and attorney general and is tracking toward control of both state houses, voted to force students to use facilities and register for sports teams according to their sex assigned at birth.

With 86 per cent of ballots counted, the majority of Coloradans, a state with a Democratic trifecta, have voted in favour of banning transgender athletes from participating in sports and prohibiting gender confirmation surgery for those under 18. Likewise, Washington, also a blue state, is tracking toward passing a transgender athlete ban.

Nebraska only narrowly re-elected their Republican governor and senator by about 8 points, but voted in favour of barring transgender athletes by a margin of over 35.

The Republicans lost a slew of midterm races. But they may still be winning the culture war.

Trans rights are simply the latest moral panic the right has cooked up to mobilize their base. Ever since the “Moral Majority,” a conservative political movement founded by Jerry Falwell, Sr. in 1979, Republicans have rallied millions to the polls over wedge issues like school prayer, same-sex marriage, and abortion.

In addition to motivating conservatives, these topics also take up airspace and distract from more fundamental and complex topics, like wealth inequality, health-care, climate change and so on. 

After the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Supreme Court decision ended the Constitutional right to abortion, Republicans produced a new battlefield upon which to wage their culture war: trans rights. In 2023, the number of bills targeting transgender people more than tripled and has continued to grow year upon year.

In 2025, state legislatures introduced a record 1,022 bills and passed 126 of them. In 2022, those numbers were 174 and 26 respectively. Over the last two years, the number of anti-trans bills at the federal level has jumped from zero to 154.

This is to say nothing of the outlandish rhetoric that has come to dominate Republican discourse. “You’ve got kids now that apparently think that they’re cats and dogs, and we are accommodating that,” Bobby Charles, Republican gubernatorial candidate in Maine, bizarrely claimed. Marjorie Taylor-Greene, among others, refers to gender-affirming health-care as “transgender mutilation surgeries.”

There is no doubt voters strongly rebuked Trump these midterms. But the Republican culture war has not been vanquished. Not nearly so.

Wedge issues exist to win elections and the fact that anti-trans fear-mongering continues to hold a strong grip on the electorate, despite a blue wave, is a troubling wrinkle to any optimistic 2028 predictions.

But more importantly, wedge issues demonize and persecute marginalized groups. In this case, trans children — they deserve adults who will vote to defend their rights and dignity.

A true victory doesn’t leave anyone behind.

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Shira Lurie is an associate professor of U.S. history at Saint Mary’s University and author of “The American Liberty Pole: Popular Politics and the Struggle for American Democracy in the Early Republic.”

Opinion articles are based on the author’s interpretations and judgments of facts, data and events. More details