Midterm election 2026: What a blue wave could actually do - Vox

Democrats are “nauseously optimistic” about retaking Congress. But even then, their power will have limits.

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This was already a record-breaking election, even before the polls opened today.

Campaigns and their allies poured record sums into political advertising. A near-record number of lawmakers are retiring or running for a different office, creating an unusually high number of open seats. And President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are approaching record lows, giving Democrats a rare opportunity: the chance to retake control of both chambers of Congress by cutting through some traditionally Republican states.

Both parties are framing the election in existential terms. Democrats have cast the midterms as an emergency brake on Trump and his agenda. And Republicans have characterized the election as a sort of firewall against far-left activists.

Unsurprisingly, given those stakes, turnout has been historic. More than 59 million Americans voted early this year, which — you guessed it! — completely blew past the midterm early-vote record set by the 2022 elections.

In-person turnout looked similarly brisk in many places Tuesday, including Georgia, Florida and Maine. But it could be days or even weeks before we have full results, especially in very close races. And it will take much longer to figure out what those results mean for the rest of us.

Democrats are really jazzed — almost queasily so — by the hope that they could retake Congress. Polls have consistently favored their candidates in the House, and they need to pick up four new seats to take control of the Senate.

Even if that happens, however, there are limits to what even a very large “blue wave” can achieve. Voters who expect their new lawmakers to ride into DC on white stallions and raze Trump’s agenda might find the next two years…a bit disappointing.

How disappointing? Well: My colleague Andrew Prokop recently asked congressional aides and outside experts what a Democratic majority could do over the rest of Trump’s second term. They “painted a picture of a grim slog akin to trench warfare.” Oof.

Much of that prediction is simple mathematics. Most legislation requires 60 Senate votes to overcome a filibuster. And even the most optimistic predictions put Democrats short of that 60-vote threshold, which means that most bills they want to pass will need to attract (via compromise or political strong-arming) some number of Republican senators.

Contrary to my recollections of Schoolhouse Rock!, however, Congress’s powers don’t begin and end with the passing of bills. A majority in either chamber would give Democrats more leverage over congressional investigations and the ability to issue subpoenas. And if Dems win the Senate, they’d gain control over the confirmation process for senior administration officials and federal judges.

Subpoena power could allow for more robust investigations into things like the Trump family’s crypto investments and Trump’s fundraising for the White House ballroom. That Senate majority, meanwhile, would let Democrats block Trump’s nominees for judgeships and administration posts — a tantalizing prospect, since lower courts are growing alarmingly partisan and two of the conservatives on the Supreme Court are approaching 80 years old.

On Tuesday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters that he would not expect a Democratic victory to persuade Trump to “change his ways.”

“But we’re going to fight Trump tooth and nail…no matter what he does,” Schumer said.

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