Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in new poll - Valor International

President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in the first round of the presidential election, according to a Meio/Ideia telephone poll released Wednesday. The result contrasts with other recent surveys that show Lula with a small lead. It comes amid a widening crisis at the Supreme Court, which entered a new phase Tuesday when Justice André Mendonça ordered the removal of Federal Police Director-General Andrei Rodrigues.

Lula has 38.4% of first-round voting intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro has 37.3%, a difference within the poll’s margin of error. A month ago, they had 43% and 35%, respectively. They are followed by Augusto Cury of Avante with 6.6%; Renan Santos of Mission and Ronaldo Caiado of the Social Democratic Party, both with 4%; Romeu Zema of Novo with 1.5%; and Pablo Marçal of the Brazilian Labor Renewal Party, who is currently barred from running, also with 1.5%. Blank and invalid votes total 2.5%, while 2.8% of respondents are undecided. Cury, now numerically in third place, had 1.7% in the August poll, when he ranked fifth. Other recent surveys have also shown gains for the Avante candidate.

In a potential runoff, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro each have 46% of voting intentions. Blank and invalid votes account for 3.5%, and 4.5% of respondents say they do not know whom they would support. Last month, Lula had 48.5% and Flávio Bolsonaro 43%, with blank and invalid votes at 4% and undecided voters at 4.5%.

The survey is the institute’s first since revelations of a Federal Police investigation that uncovered messages exchanged between former Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The case has triggered a crisis within the court, pitting Moraes against Justice André Mendonça.

The poll shows that corruption allegations are the top reason voters cite for rejecting a candidate, cited by 48.5% of respondents. Cross-tabulations, however, suggest the issue is fueling rejection of both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The senator has faced scrutiny since messages between him and Vorcaro became public.

Lula, meanwhile, has been hurt by the social security fraud scandal, investigations involving his son Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, and voters’ association of the president with Moraes, who presided over proceedings against former President Jair Bolsonaro over an attempted coup. Among voters who approve of the Lula administration, 53.3% cite corruption as a reason to reject a candidate. Among Flávio Bolsonaro voters, the figure is 50.6%.

The institute reports that 80.3% of respondents are aware of the allegations against the president’s son. Additionally, 76.3% know about the voice message where Flávio Bolsonaro requests money from Banco Master’s owner, and 75.5% are aware of Moraes’s connection to Vorcaro.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s image appears more vulnerable in the case involving him: 47.9% of those aware of the episode say it makes them less likely to vote for the senator. In Lula’s case, 24.5% say the allegations against Fábio Luís make them less likely to vote for the president. A total of 41.9% agree with the statement that “both sides of Brazilian politics are equally corrupt.” Another 17.7% disagree, while 40.4% have no opinion.

The damage to the Supreme Court’s image is also significant: 49.7% of respondents report little or no confidence in the institution. The Federal Police has also suffered reputational damage, with 48.5% holding a negative view of the institution.

The institute measured candidate rejection through four questions. In one, voters were asked which candidate they rejected most: 45% named Lula, compared with 42.7% for Flávio Bolsonaro. In another, respondents were asked whom they would “never” vote for: 46.6% chose Lula and 45.7% chose Flávio Bolsonaro. A separate question, which measured rejection of each candidate while accounting for respondents’ familiarity with them, found rejection rates of 48% for Lula and 47.7% for Flávio Bolsonaro.

The Meio/Ideia poll also suggests that votes for lower-ranked candidates would not automatically shift to Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff. Augusto Cury’s voters are sharply divided: 36.4% approve of the Lula administration, and 47.5% disapprove. Among Romeu Zema’s voters, approval is very low, and only 45.3% disapprove of the government. About two-thirds of Ronaldo Caiado’s supporters disapprove of Lula’s administration, compared with three-quarters among Renan Santos’s voters.

Perceptions of the economy are weighing on Lula’s government ratings. According to the poll, 32% rate the administration’s performance on the economy as good or very good, 2.5 percentage points below its overall approval rating. Another 37% rate its economic performance as bad or very bad. The weak spot is the so-called C class, broadly comprising lower-middle-income households, where positive ratings fall to 28.3% and negative ratings reach 47.5%. Among the lower-income D and E groups, 42.4% rate Lula’s economic performance positively, two percentage points below his overall rating among those voters, while one-third describe the government’s performance as merely average.

Ideia interviewed 1,500 voters aged 16 and older by telephone from Thursday, Sept. 4, through the Sept. 7 holiday. The poll has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

This article was translated from Valor Econômico using an artificial intelligence tool under the supervision of the Valor International editorial team to ensure accuracy, clarity, and adherence to our editorial standards. Read our Editorial Principles.