Kalshi Head of Research on Midterms Accuracy

Nicole Kagan, Head of Research at Kalshi, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss the prediction platform's accuracy on 2026 midterm election night, saying that bets on the platform were over 98% accurate across Tuesday's races. She points out that traders rapidly repriced races like the South Carolina senate race within minutes of polls closing, and often before news outlets called results. Kagan also discusses how her team digests the outcomes of trades on major events, and how participants gather information to support their bets. She also discusses how institutional investors might apply the platform's probability and price discovery component in their daily work. Kagan speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. (Source: Bloomberg)