Iran war in focus as Trump suffers midterm debacle

Congressional elections in the middle of a president’s four-year term often produce negative results for the White House. But what the voters in the United States delivered on Nov 3 was nothing short of a rejection of President Donald Trump’s domestic and foreign policy agenda.

Voters in America went to the polls to elect a new House of Representatives and 35 out of 100 seats in the Senate. But President Trump turned the polls into a virtual referendum on his presidency, by calling on his supporters to pretend his name was on the ballot. When the results started pouring in, Trump probably wished he had not made these midterms so personal.

Most polls had already predicted that the Democrats would likely seize control of the House from the Republicans. Ending Republican control of the Senate was also floated as a possibility, but not seen as a certainty. In the end, voters handed control of both chambers of Congress to those who are determined to put brakes on Trump’s agenda.

The Democratic Party’s victory was so comprehensive that commentators are calling it a political tsunami, or a “Blue Wave” in reference to the party’s traditional colour. Some have even combined the terms into a portmanteau, dubbing the 2026 elections a “Bluenami”.

Until Monday, the Republicans had the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate. When the new Congress members take their oath of office on Jan 3 next year, the Republican Party will just have a presidency shackled by a hostile legislature.

What would this mean for Trump, who is in danger of becoming a lame-duck, or toothless, president for the remainder of his term? Mostly, a whole host of troubles.

With a solid majority in Congress, the Democrats are now in a position to address many of the issues they have been complaining about om the 23 months since Trump assumed office for a second term. These range from allegations of corruption to nepotism; from disregard for democratic norms to authoritarian behaviour; from inhumane immigration policy to starting wars without legal authority.

With solid majorities in both chambers of Congress, Democrats are likely to try to use their powers to bring down Trump’s empire. Congress has many tools with which to investigate alleged misdemeanour and violations in the public arena. Allegations of corruption against Trump’s family and friends could be one area where Congressional committees could order public hearings.

There is now a realistic possibility of impeachment. A Democrat-controlled House would be ready to impeach Trump on a number of charges. But an impeached president can only be removed from office if he is subsequently tried and found guilty in the Senate, for which 60 votes are needed.

With Democrats taking their seat total to 54, possibly 55 after Tuesday’s vote, the possibility of a conviction does not seem out of the question. Democrats would need to persuade five or six Republican senators to go against the president.

This would pose a real challenge for the remaining 44 or 45 Republican senate members. Should they abandon their president or think about their own political future? Some of these Republicans are likely to face the electorate in 2028, when 34 Senate seats would be up for election. Judging by the current public mood against Trump, would standing with the president be the prudent decision? Some of them may well decide to save themselves by throwing Trump under the bus.

The first and most senior member of Team Trump to distance himself from the president is none other than his Vice President JD Vance, who has ambitions to run for the top job in 2028. In a long post on social media X, Vance said many voters who had voted for Trump in 2024 went against the president this time. The reason?

“The reason we lost is the war,” Vance wrote.

The war in question is, of course, Trump’s war on Iran. Trump himself admitted that the war cost him the elections, but still said it was “worth it.” Vance, on the other hand, did not offer any such caveat.

“Everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there,” Vance wrote. In other words, he urged Republicans to acknowledge the war on Iran as the single biggest blunder of the Trump administration and reorganise themselves with that in mind.

Interestingly, Vance quoted an unnamed pollster whom he trusts, as identifying four actions the Republicans need to take to regain lost support. The pollster based his list of actions after talking to voters who had switched from Republican to Democrat. These four actions are: a) end the Iran war; b) focus on cost of living and inflation; c) put America first and d) change the relationship to Israel.

During the 2024 presidential elections, Trump had campaigned on an “America First” policy. His focus was on improving the domestic economy, reducing inflation, creating jobs, cracking down on undocumented migration, steering America away from foreign wars, not getting involved in any regime-change projects overseas, etc.

It is clear many voters felt the Republican Party had gone off course and indulged in policies and actions that had little to do with their daily life and struggles. The issue of Israel now looms large over US politics as well, with majority of Americans having a negative view of the Jewish state for the first time in history.

Trump tried to respond to the anti-Israeli sentiment by announcing an end to military aid to Tel Aviv. It was too little, too late, and it is doubtful if anyone believed it anyway.

In the early days of his second term in 2025, Trump’s anti-immigration drive was exactly what he had promised, and then delivered. But the sweet taste of success soon soured, as immigration enforcement officers brutally removed migrants, triggering protests. Confrontations turned violent and two American citizens were shot dead by officers, which brought Trump’s operation into question.

For whatever reasons, Trump appeared to forget what propelled him to the presidency in the first place - the promise to curtail inflation and his America First policy. He soon undertook actions which not only angered his opponents, but also demoralised his hard-core support base.

First came the so-called “reciprocal tariffs” imposed on imports from countries around the world. The tariffs were later declared illegal by the Supreme Court, but the increase in cost of imports raised prices at the shops, which directly hit American consumers. Few outside Trump’s immediate circle saw the tariff policy as America First.

The biggest controversy came with Trump’s decision to team up with Israel and launch a war on Iran. Traditionally, public support for wars remain high unless the conflict drags on and American casualties mount. The war on Iran proved to be an exception. It was unpopular from the very beginning.

Even many staunch Trump supporters saw this as a betrayal of his America First policies. The Iran war was seen as something undertaken at the behest of Israel and for the benefit of Israel.

Worse for Trump, the Iran war did not go according to plan. Instead of buckling within days, Iran took control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which some 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas supplies pass. The war’s impact was then felt across the global energy markets and crucially, gas prices at the pumps in the US.

Trump’s failure to reduce gasoline price at home - a direct result of the Iran war - delivered a mortal blow to the Republican party’s prospects at the polls.

There is no doubt President Trump is sensing his impending doom, and working on a strategy of survival. At this stage, his political agenda is probably the least of his concern. Impeachment, scrutiny of his family’s business deals etc, could be foremost in his mind.

Before the elections, sources from his camp let it be known that he would look for ways to bypass Congress to push his agenda; but after the scale of the Democrat victory became clear, Trump has softened his tone greatly.

In media interviews following the debacle, Trump has spoken of working with Democrats to take the country forward. He said he did to want to spend the next two years just vetoing laws passed by a Democrat-controlled Congress. This offer of cooperation is unlikely to come without any strings.

While America is trying to make sense of what just happened, there would be a quiet sense of relief, if not satisfaction, across much of Europe. The Trump presidency had engineered a near-rupture with traditional US allies in Europe, often picking quarrels with the continent’s major powers.

While Trump remains in office, leaders in London, Paris, Berlin etc., know his powers would now face more challenges. They probably sense that 2026 could be a sign of things to come in 2028.

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