David Kaufman: A far-left Democratic win today will prime Americans to vote for a Republican in 2028 - National Post

Copy URL Facebook Linked In X (Twitter) Loading account options Sign In Manage Account Close account menu Sign Out Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed speaks to his supporters at his last rally at The Majestic Theater on November 2, 2026, in Detroit, Michigan. (Salwan Georges / Getty Images) By David Christopher Kaufman November 3, 2026 at 8:14 a.m. Last Updated: November 3, 2026 at 8:19 a.m. As much as they would love to retain the House and Senate this week, a massive Democratic win in today’s midterms could be the best thing that ever happens to the Republicans. At least when it comes to the race for the White House in 2028.

And ultimately, isn’t this what the Midterms are really all about?

Conventional wisdom has it that the 2028 Republican presidential nominee will either be Vice-President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The two have been battling quietly between themselves for months to see who will carry on the MAGA flame — eager to attain alpha-status while avoiding the crosshairs of their boss, Donald Trump. But the most consequential player in this war will be their eventual Democratic challenger — if not the post-term Democratic party itself.

But who will emerge as that 2028 rival? That is ultimately the highest-stakes outcome of the Midterms. Should the Democrats triumph today — winning history-making contests in Michigan, Florida, Maine and Texas — their extremist tilt will almost certainly shift into hyperdrive. That means mere moderates like California Governor Gavin Newsom, his Pennsylvania counterpart Josh Shapiro and even former VP and twice failed presidential candidate Kamala Harris could easily be deemed too centrist to retain the support of their now left-lurching party.

The weekend denunciation of Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens for refusing to endorse her former rival Abdul el-Sayed for Senate demonstrates how tiny the Democrats “big-tent” has become.

So that leaves Alexandia Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), the 37 year Queens congresswoman who could either run for the U.S. Senate or aim for the White House. AOC clearly understands this is her make-or-break moment, noting back in September: “It’s very all or nothing… If I were to run in this cycle and not win, I would be done.”

Already her potential Republican opponents view a win by the controversial Egyptian-American el-Sayed — along with his equally improbable candidate cohort — today as ensuring an AOC run for the White House. “We’re a divided country,” As Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz of the Congresswoman over the weekend. “Look, if she is the nominee, she could win.”

While there is little doubt AOC could secure her party’s nomination, securing the approval of that divided nation will be an entirely different endeavor. And the elements that make her so appealing to the Democrats — such as her Socialist leanings and far-left ideals — could easily turn off Middle America.

Just look at el-Sayed for a clue of what AOC’s eventual Republican rival could throw at her down the line. Over the weekend in an appearance on the 60 Minutes news program, el-Sayed suggested he has little problem with biological men changing in female dressing rooms in front of young girls because they will eventually see nude men on social media platforms.

The Stevens defection managed to drown out much of the scrutiny over el-Sayed’s illogic. But this is just one outlandish notion from one far-left Democrat their eventual presidential nominee will need to manage. And there are just so, so many of them — far-left Democrats and their seemingly endless number of outlandish notions.

Beyond their extremist views are the actual voter numbers required to get a presidential nominee elected. While there is little doubt the Democratic Socialists have been masterful in getting their candidates across the finish line, their actual voter numbers are woefully meager. How meager? Just look at Darializa Avila Chevalier, the Democratic Socialists of America candidate who won the Democratic primary in June for New York’s 13th District, which includes Upper Manhattan and the South Bronx.

The sprawling area is home to 750,000 residents, roughly the population of my hometown San Francisco. Barely 35,000 people living in District 13 bothered to vote in the primary leading Chevalier to a win by just 2,000 votes. AOC isn’t performing much better. During her August reelection run, she received just over 31,000 votes — which means that 97 per cent of her constituents did not cast a ballot for her.

America is a nation with notoriously low voter turnout and smaller-scale elections in non-presidential years always underperform. But these minuscule numbers lay clear just how niche the DSA is when it comes to actual ballots cast. Further, working against the party is their candidates’ relative youth and lack of broad recognition.

Even a relative party veteran like AOC has only been in politics for barely a decade — compare that to a potential Republican rival like Rubio who’s been part of the government machine since AOC was a child (and showed the world what actual foreign policy chops look like at the Munich Security Conference earlier this year, where AOC could barely geo-locate Venezuela).

This is why an emboldened DSA faction fronted by the likes of AOC — who sent $1 million to help shore up the el-Sayed campaign last month — could keep the Republicans in the White House for four more years. Though, as Cruz suggested a few days back, there are no guarantees — especially if Vice-President Vance ultimately triumphs over Rubio to be anointed Trump’s successor.

Such a scenario would prove a weaker foil to an emboldened DSA-powered Democrat. Rubio vs. AOC pits two Latinos against each other in an election cycle where the Hispanic vote — leery of the White House’s immigration overreach — has never been more consequential. As Latino support for Trump plummets, Vance, despite his multi-ethnic family, offers far less appeal to minority voters.

As America prepares to vote in what Politico has described as “the Armageddon of all elections,” the future for both the Democrats and Republicans has never been less clear — and primed for upheaval. Ultimately, the Democrats need a clear sweep tonight in order to reestablish themselves as serious change-makers going into 2028. The Republicans, however, need merely to not crash and burn in order to remain viable.

Either way, both sides understand an old order is now fading — and no one is entirely sure what to make of its replacement.

David Christopher Kaufman is a New York-based journalist and former New York Post editor and columnist, and founder of The Octagon Project. Sign up for his Substack newsletter, Counterintuitive.

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