Damien Cox: Anatomy of the Maple Leafs’ meltdown in Seattle: $7 million is steep for a blah Bobrovsky - Toronto Star
The good news for the Leafs is that Bobrovsky’s issues are really the only negative at the moment.
Maple Leafs goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has allowed three goals or more in nine of 10 starts this season, including Wednesday night’s loss to the Kraken in Seattle.
Damien Cox is a former Star sports reporter who is a current freelance contributing columnist based in Toronto. Follow him on Twitter: @DamoSpin.
Sergei Bobrovsky isn’t exactly killing the Maple Leafs.
But he’s not helping them much, either.
Mostly he’s giving them about what they would expect from any NHL goalie earning $3 million to $5 million (U.S.) a season, and there’s the rub. Bobrovsky is making $7 million, 11th among netminders, and came to town with the reputation of a difference maker.
He’s allowed 33 goals in 10 starts, which advanced stats (expected goals against) say is about what he should have allowed given the shots he’s faced. But that’s not what goalies, particularly great ones, are supposed to do, and puts him 69th in that category.
What about goals saved above expected, which measures goals prevented compared to an average netminder facing the same shots? Bobrovsky is basically at zero, which means he’s neither overperforming or underperforming.
With three wins and seven losses, five in regulation, he’s just sort of blah.
What about wins above replacement, which essentially measures the difference a goalie is making to his team? Bobrovsky is 28th. Not good, not horrible. Interestingly, former Leaf Joseph Woll, essentially sent to Philadelphia to make room for Bobrovsky’s signing, is better in this stat after eight starts at 11th.
Stats, of course, sometimes tell you important things, and sometimes they obscure important things. The Leafs lost 5-4 in Seattle on Wednesday night on a last-second goal from Brandon Montour, a high-quality offensive defenceman who beat Bobrovsky under the right elbow from the top of the right circle. If you just isolate the shot, Goalie Bob didn’t come through after his new team had fought back from two goals down in the third period to tie the game.
SEATTLE SCORES LATE TO BREAK THE TIE AND WIN THE GAME 🤯 https://t.co/DpcMfkDHjJ
The result must have left Leafs head coach Jim Hiller wondering about his choices. Bobrovsky had been beaten on four of the first 12 shots he faced. Hiller could have made a move to Anthony Stolarz at that point, but didn’t.
In the end, Bobrovsky faced a total of 17 shots while allowing three or more goals for the ninth time in 10 starts. Hiller said afterward his goalie played “all right.”
The good news for Toronto is that Bobrovsky’s issues are really the only negative at the moment.
The Leafs have five come-from-behind wins, Auston Matthews was tied for third in league scoring as of Thursday, and Gavin McKenna led all rookies in points. Darren Raddysh hasn’t scored, but he’s playing 24 minutes a night and is their best all-around blueliner. Nick Paul, Zack MacEwen, Troy Stecher and Easton Cowan have all had good moments.
But if you don’t have goaltending, it all adds up to nothing. In this case, it adds up to blah. The Leafs have won seven games and lost eight, six in regulation. That put them 21st out of 32 teams by win percentage (.533) heading into Thursday.
You could say they’d be much better if Bobrovsky had been better. But they could be worse if Matthews hadn’t bounced back like he has, or if Cowan wasn’t showing major steps forward in his maturation process.
They are what they are with key injuries to Chris Tanev, John Tavares and Kirill Marchenko: a team with excellent special teams that struggles at five-on-five. There’s just no way they should give up that chance to Montour on a defensive-zone faceoff in the final minute of regulation with the game tied. If Roslovic just stays home there’s no scoring chance.
The Leafs can surely defend that play better, but can Bobrovsky still make that challenging save? It’s an open question as this young NHL season gets set to move into November.
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Opinion articles are based on the author’s interpretations and judgments of facts, data and events. More details
Damien Cox is a former Star sports reporter who is a current freelance contributing columnist based in Toronto. Follow him on Twitter: @DamoSpin.
