Can either major party win over New Zealand's frustrated voters? - ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation
New Zealand heads to the polls this weekend in one of the tightest elections the country has seen in years.
Neither of the two major parties is polling much above 30 per cent, and analysts say voters don't believe either side can fix the country's problems.
A centrist wildcard party could win parliamentary seats for the first time, and if the result is as close as expected, it might end up holding the balance of power.
Mike KermodeNew Zealand votes this weekend in what's shaping up to be one of the country's tightest elections in modern times. Neither of the two main parties are likely to get close to a majority on their own.
So who could actually win? Well, one thing looks almost certain. The next Prime Minister will be called Chris. Sitting PM Christopher Luxon, whose National Party has governed since 2023, is up against Labour rival Chris Hipkins. But the race is so close that neither of them may be able to form the government without help. It's been a rough term for Luxon. His party faced two internal confidence votes this year alone, and there's deep voter frustration over high unemployment, the cost of living, and the brain drain of Kiwis leaving for Australia. Unemployment has just hit an 11-year high, rising to 5.7 per cent in the September quarter. That's not the economic record National was hoping to run on. So why aren't voters backing Labour instead? Ben Thomas, a former National Government press secretary, says the problem is that neither party is really connecting. Polls have both National and Labor stuck around 28-30 per cent apiece.
Mike KermodeThere is a broader mistrust in the electorate of both of our traditional two major parties.
Mike KermodeAnd he says there's a growing anti-incumbency trend worldwide that can hammer governing parties at election time. So what are the other options for voters? On the left side of politics, the Greens are polling strongly, and the Te Pati Maori, an Indigenous rights party, is another traditional partner. But there's a wild card, the Opportunity Party. Recent polls suggested it could win seats in Parliament for the first time. And if the result is as tight as expected, it could hold the balance of power. The party's platform includes a land tax, a universal basic income, and pro-environment measures. Luxon has ruled out governing with Opportunity, though that kind of line is fairly standard during campaigns for parties reluctant to admit they may not win a majority. What happens if Luxon loses? A loss for a single-term government like Luxon's would be unprecedented in a country where second terms are virtually guaranteed. But the mood has soured. Ben Thomas believes the country is more divided than ever, and it could be any single issue that swings the entire election.
Mike KermodeThere are a lot of very fine, marginal kind of matters which could be the deciders.
Mike KermodeCampaigning ends tonight, with a media blackout from midnight New Zealand time. Preliminary results are expected to start coming in from 7pm Saturday.
