ANC projected to finish third in Tshwane, behind DA and ActionSA - IOL

The ANC is projected to finish third in Tshwane, behind the DA and ActionSA, in a major blow to the party in the country’s capital.

Projections by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), updated at 3.44pm on Thursday, put the DA on 31.77% of the PR vote in the metro.

ActionSA was projected to finish second on 22.70%, ahead of the ANC on 20.07%.

The FF Plus was projected on 7.49% and the EFF on 5.43%.

The projections were based on 29.4% of the metro’s voting districts being declared.

The actual count at that stage was close to the projections, with the DA at 32.42%, ActionSA at 23.22%, and the ANC at 19.24%.

The CSIR said its projections were statistical estimates based on available data and underlying assumptions, and not official results.

The projections appear to be on track.

By 5.30pm on Thursday, with 35% of the votes counted, the IEC had the DA on 34.4%, ActionSA on 22.64% and the ANC on 20.26%.

The FF Plus was polling at 7.89% and the EFF at 5.69%. The DA, ActionSA and ANC had each won one seat at that stage.

No party is projected to come close to a majority in Tshwane, which has 1.68 million registered voters, leaving the metro heading for another coalition government.

ActionSA, which Herman Mashaba formed in 2020, currently holds the mayoralty in Tshwane through Nasiphi Moya.

Louw Nel, senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, said Moya’s term as mayor had boosted ActionSA’s profile.

He said a DA-ActionSA coalition was emerging as an option in Gauteng, made possible by ActionSA’s strong showing in Tshwane.

“The early numbers suggest a coalition is possible, if the two parties can find a way to set their much-publicised animus aside,” Nel said.

He said the ANC’s negotiating position in the Gauteng metros was weak.

“The ANC’s negotiating position in the Gauteng metros and NMB is not a strong one,” Nel said.

The CSIR projects the ANC at about 20% in all three Gauteng metros, with 20.16% in Johannesburg and 21.70% in Ekurhuleni.

Across Gauteng, the CSIR projected ActionSA to finish third on 17.3%, up from 9.4% in 2021.

Turnout in Tshwane stood at 53.9% when the projections were updated.

The IEC has seven days to declare the results, after which new councils must hold their first meetings within 14 days to elect speakers and mayors.